Today was the fifth consecutive day that the afternoon high temperature did not exceed 30 degrees. The forecast is calling for another five days just like it!

Brutal cold is not uncommon for this area in winter. A two- or three-day bitter snap is customary. What is not so common is this type of punishing cold and how long it is lingering.

It is possible the afternoon highs don't get higher than 32 degrees until Tuesday. That would be 10 days. The last long-lasting cold snap like this New Jersey endured was late December 2017 to early January 2018. It's been a while. Make sure the water to outdoor pipes or susceptible plumbing is turned off. This is the type of cold where pipes can and usually do burst.

Morning lows on Thursday will once again be painfully cold. Even wearing layers and limiting skin exposure, the wind and that arctic air feel quite uncomfortable if you have to spend any time outside. Despite sunshine in the forecast, it will do nothing to warm things up. Afternoon highs, for a sixth consecutive day, will not make it to 30 degrees. Forty degrees is normal for this time of year.

The weekend storm is looking less and less like a serious snow threat for most of the area. We aren't out of the woods yet, but the trend with most computer modeling is taking the storm south and east of our "benchmark" for serious snow.

The probability of snow along the shore is slowly dropping, but not to zero. We will have a much better idea tomorrow about possible snow amounts. The issue we will not escape is damaging winds and coastal flooding. It's possible that while the storm is just out of its likely "window" for snow making, it will be getting stronger off the New Jersey coast.

As the storm deepens, it will create very strong winds. Gusts, especially along the shore, could be as high as 40 mph to 60 mph. The moon will be full on Sunday, so tides are already going to be higher than normal. With intense winds pushing water back up against the coast, flooding is likely. With ice in the back bays and lagoons and the sea level rising with the tide and wind, it is possible structural damage could happen with pilings and docks. Something to think about if you have property on the water.

Stay tuned. I hope you are all well and healthy. Be kind to each other.

~Dave