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12. OK, everybody, pay attention to this because this is the most important part of the forecast so that you know exactly what's going to happen where you live. Now listen, if you live coastal versus inland, I got this question on social media. How do I know if I live in a coastal community? Well, let's look at it this way. If you live south of the Driscoll Bridge, that's exit 129 on the Garden State Parkway, and you're east of the parkway, and that's if you're looking at a map with north to the top, east is on. Right hand side that would be a coastal community and anyone living east of the parkway here would have the following impacts winds 20 to 30 MPH gusts near 55. Many power outages are expected rain 4 to 5 inches, flash flooding is expected and significant beach erosion and high tides for the next several cycles going into the weekend. Now if you live in northern New Jersey or western New Jersey or inland away from. The coast you'll have winds near 20 to 25 sustained gusts near 35 to 40 worst winds overnight Saturday into Sunday with some power problems as well. Rainfall 2 to 4 inches with flooding, less rain northwest Sussex County, northwestern Morris County, Warren County, those areas not going to see as much rain, but unfortunately Bergen County, Union, Hudson, Essex Counties all experiencing a lot of Rain so you'll be closer to the 4 inches there in the northeastern corner. The worst day is still Saturday for rainfall for inland areas, but the rain does persist into Sunday as well. A high surf advisory remains in effect for the Jersey Shore, with surf and waves crashing ashore between 11 and 14 ft as we head into the weekend. So that of course is going to produce a lot of damaging erosion and coastal flooding concerns.

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AAA recommends securing outdoor furniture and other loose items that could become projectiles in strong winds. 

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AAA shares key nor’easter safety tips as homeowners prepare for strong winds and heavy rain

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LIVE UPDATES: Jersey Shore braces for beach erosion, worsening coastal flooding as nor'easter intensifies

9252026NJlauren7

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Winds continue to be blustery as we head into Saturday, Saturday midday, Saturday night, and then again on Sunday where it starts to finally change direction and lower in its intensity as we get into Sunday mid-morning. Here's the weekend alert list coastal flood warning, high surf advisory, high wind warning. The coast wind advisory inland and a rip current statement. Although nobody should be jumping in the water to swim. Today's forecast 57 degrees right now, mostly cloudy across the state, 75 this afternoon with windy weather. Let's head outside of Bay Head with Lauren, who's standing at the beaches. Lauren, I see the surf behind you. What's going on? Yeah, yeah, we are literally at the bottom of the dune here, so we moved up from the top of the dune to the bottom of the dune here just because I want to show you just how powerful the water is and it's already eating away at the beach ramp here. So there's already a sharp cliff right there, right at the ramp, and you could see the intense waves and just how messy and how washed up. It's like a washing machine. This water is look at all that foam now. The way you can see how high the water is coming up. It's coming up to the fences here, so the protection, the fence protection is certainly getting work out, a lot of pressure on the dunes this morning, and again you can see how high these waves are curling in here. They could be up to 12 ft, so pretty crazy looking waves out here, very active here. They had police letting residents know that the beach erosion is going to be. Because Mike said these northeasterly winds, right? Well, people in Bay had really along the Jersey Shore have been dealing with these northeasterly winds for about a week now as this northeaster northeaster develops. Now it's developed and getting closer to New Jersey here. Coastal flooding on the back Bay streets flood prone spots is going to be getting worse going into tomorrow morning with each high tide cycle, and we will check in on those spots. It just takes a little Bit for the water to get through into the rivers into the tidal passages, so we'll continue to keep an eye on that as the morning goes on. But here in Bay Head they are really expecting tomorrow to be the nasty day with the rain and the wind. Even right now though, we don't have the rain, but we are certainly getting hit with all of that wind. You can probably hear it. I'm trying to turn my back towards that wind, so it's not really catching up on the mic here. But winds are an issue. They could be gusting over 50 miles an hour. That could create power outages. Even these seagulls are having a difficult time flying this morning. But you know what? We talked to locals and they say they're ready for it. The waves are fabulous. Mother Nature is just basically saying, I own this place. Anything that we try to do to Interfere with her Doesn't work. I love mornings like this. We're here, we're here 365 days a year. So they have certainly seen their fair shore, uh, fair share of storms at the shore. They say this one is a nor'easter. The only difference with this one though is that they have been dealing with that persistent northeast wind, which is not good for the beach erosion here. So that is the very latest out of Bay Head. Lauren De, News 12, New Jersey. All right, Lauren, just getting underway here as we continue to track this storm. Make sure to stay with us for the latest conditions by downloading the free News 12 app. Get live radar anytime with the hour by hour and extended forecast.

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Coastal communities face dangerous high tides, beach erosion, and power outages through the weekend.

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STORM WATCH: Slow-moving nor'easter threatens New Jersey coast with heavy rain, high winds, and tidal flooding

A closer track means a rainier and windier weekend is looking more likely. The coastal concerns remain and that's where we will see the greatest impacts.

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Here's a look at what's changed today with the forecast ahead of weekend nor’easter

JOHN AND MICHELE DIGITAL 0924

Hi everyone, I'm storm watch team meteorologist Michelle Powers here with meteorologist John Marshall, and we're going to update you on our confidence that it's building, right, Michelle, that a nor'easter is going to strike the tri-state area this weekend. It looks like a prolonged event, doesn't it? It certainly does, yes, because the upper level pattern is going to. Try to bring this storm in, intensify, bring it northward, and then it's basically going to sit and spin for a little while, which means we're going to be looking at waves of rain and our coast is going to get beat up. Yes, there's going to be a huge difference between the coastal areas, the impacts, and the inland areas as we go through time. All right, so let's take a look at some of the graphics here. This is the potential track or what we think is going to be happening. Most likely track right now as we look at the latest computer guidance looks like this storm is going to come up the coast and then get captured by the upper level low and swing this retrograde it back towards the New Jersey coastline. That is not a good track. That does not bode well for the area, meaning that this thing does look like Michelle most likely will be a hit. Yes, because it is closer to us and with this. Of retrograde motion it's going to keep it rainier and it's also going to keep it windier longer. So that's been my message all along to everyone here we've had waves building up along the coastline for days with that persistent area of high pressure and the developing low to the south. That's the pressure gradient. What happens is the tighter the isobars, meaning the lines of equal pressure, the stronger the winds. That's why there's already been reports of coastal flooding through parts of the region. Yes, I thought I had the isobars on this map. I do. But this is basically showing by the time we get to tomorrow night and into Saturday morning we're going to see waves of rain come across the area and they kind of lines up with the isobars. The isobars would be right about here and they'd be very tight and clustered over the area as Michelle said, it's not going to be raining all the time this weekend. It starts scattered in nature on Saturday. You can see by 6:45 the time stamp there, but look at this amount, this huge push of rain coming in. And Michelle, you can actually notice the counterclockwise flow around this area of low pressure. This could be the center right here. Now again, this is a model that we're looking at, so this is our best prediction of the future, but this could change a little bit. So that's why you need to check back in with the two of us over the next couple of days. Absolutely it's not concrete, it's not verbatim, but one of several of the models actually, the European, the graph model that we use show this thing retrograding back and hooking to the south and west. That does not bode well because What's going to happen along the coast, Michelle? They're going to see the most rough conditions. Yes, this is pretty nasty, so it's not a beach day by any means. I mean it hasn't been because we've seen the rough surf already. We're dealing with some of the coastal flooding here. Winds could gust as high as about 55 miles an hour. Power outages isolated in nature and not good, right? Just be prepared, folks. Not trying to scare you. There could be some isolated power outages, and you said coastal areas, downpours and moderate beach erosion. Tidal flooding, but it's a bit different inland. But that wave of rain may even make it inland now as we see in the latest models. So you know we got to watch that situation. Yes, so we could be looking at maybe some street flooding with that if this all materializes as what the models are showing there in inland areas to be prepared for maybe some power outages or power flickers that may be going on throughout the weekend. It's, it's going to be an indoor weekend for sure. Make sure the pets are nice. And comfortable inside to grab a good book, Michelle, grab a good book. I don't think the dog's going to want to go for a walk with this. And as we said, folks, you could see the rain amounts they're pretty substantial 1 to 2 inches of rain along the coastline, but I don't want you to concentrate on the specific town or city here. Just know that we do have a lot of rain working in from the ocean and 1 to 2 inches of rain obviously up the mid-Hudson Valley. We think it's going to be a bit lighter, probably, yeah, probably western sections, but I mean this rain can make it all. Way past the parkway here in New Jersey over towards the turnpike, but of course we're going to be watching the shore and Long Island too right along the beaches for probably, you know, a couple of inches of rain and then the winds too, they're focused here. This graphic may be a little hard to see, but they're focused right along the coastline, right? The area is shaded in that orange which we're looking at a wind advisory, maybe a high wind watch in some parts that are going to be popping up here. I think that's what we're looking at that is a high. Wind watch with winds possibly exceeding 60 miles an hour along the immediate Jersey coastline that's east of the parkway, but all of New York City, Long Island, south coastal Connecticut is under that advisory for winds gusting possibly up to 55 miles an hour, and that means that the situation could become a bit tumultuous for travel or just being outdoors. Yes, definitely. And here's the coastal flooding that you were talking about too. Those winds are just already pushing. Pulling that water right against the shoreline, so tides are going to be running higher than normal with that. And then we have the full moon and that the full moon and what does that add to the situation and make it more vulnerable to those sections that do get tidal flooding? What happens when there's a full moon like that? It just exacerbates the situation. It does, yes, it just brings the tides up. So we're going to be looking at that happening. It's the gravitational pull with the sun and the moon and the earth, yes, so not. It's not good news. We have a storm that's coming in towards the coastline. We have a full moon and number 3, we've had persistent east to northeast winds. So the water just has piled up even in the Back Bays of parts of New Jersey. There's nowhere for that water to go. Yes, they're going to be dealing with that. It could be possibly, you know, a serious situation this weekend. That's why we're going to keep it tuned here to where News 12. Yes, Michelle, I and the whole team have you covered. All right, thanks guys.

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