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NJPP831B

Welcome back to New Jersey Power and Politics. I'm Eric Lands Krenner. Eventful if not controversial week as usual on the campaign trail for both presidential candidates. So who's ahead in the polls now? That depends on the poll. But this week, a poll by Emerson and the Hill revealed that in swing states, which New Jersey is not, one is essentially a toss up right now. And that said FDU is out with a poll of its own and it's about the role crypto could play in this race. You heard me right. Joining me now is Dan Cassino, executive director of the poll and a professor of government and politics at Fairley Dickinson University. Dan. Uh It's good to see you. Thanks a lot for being here. Thanks for having me. Listen at, at first blush. Some might ask how much relevance crypto has on a race like this. So before we talk about the results, what was, what was the impetus behind this? So we know that more people own crypto in the US than people would generally think. We think this being this kind of niche, very online thing, but it actually turned out to be very widespread. There's also been concerted effort, especially in the Trump camp to actually try and reach those crypto voters. So we've actually seen former President Trump talking to a crypto conference last month and the organize that conference being apparently very upset that Vice President Harris did not come and talk with them. And so we want to really explore, all right, does this actually matter? Are these crypto voters, do they actually, you know, do they actually change their votes based on who's trying to reach out to them? And of course, we found that they really do. All right. So, so let's dig in among people who own crypto. What did you find? Well, we found is that people in crypto are much, much more likely to support Trump than support Harris in this race. So the gap between cry. So people own crypto are actually favoring Trump in this race by 12 points. On the other hand, people who do not own crypto aren't favoring Harris by 12 points. Now that by itself is actually not necessarily that surprising. You might think, well, maybe the people who own crypto are just different kinds of people. They're men, they're younger. There are all these other things that might make them otherwise vote for Trump, but we actually found that's not the case. So when we even we control for all these factors, we look at all right. Let's look at a, I, let's look at sex. Let's look at partisanship that crypto owners are more likely to support Trump than any other people who are similarly situated. So, yes, they are younger. They are more male, but they're not actually terribly Republican. They're not maga, they're not conservative. These are actually relatively swing voters and a lot of that is helped by the fact, the cryptos are actually also disproportionately non white. So the Trump campaign has really tried to reach out to Black and Hispanic men and this is actually a place where they seem to be doing just that. So what's the takeaway for strategists? What can strategists and, and voters, people are paying close attention on the outside and helping the campaigns? What can they glean from these numbers? Well, I would say that crypto ownership is really a powerful local force. This is 15% of registered voters in the US say that they own crypto and reaching out to them as foreign President Trump has done is basically costless because people who are not into crypto are not paying attention to crypto policy at all. So you can reach out to them without really costing yourself a vote and potentially pick up a lot of these very swingy young black and Hispanic men isn't first time, by the way that the former president has dipped a toe into the uh the work of a digital world of digital assets rather in April, he launched an NFT collection as well. Uh Dan and he did that actually again, he put another one earlier this week where he's raised hundreds of millions of dollars. Dan. Uh Le let's shift gear zero in on your other recent poll. This one focusing on how race and gender of the candidates is influencing the race right here. Uh walk us through the overall findings. So what we found we were really interesting is how race and gender fit in this overall basket of issues that people are thinking about when they're thinking about the election, we know that this upcoming election is really different, that we have a mixed race, black woman running against a white man. We've never seen dynamics like this before. So we want to see how much this actually matters. And we found is that when we remove race and gender, we use an experimental design to remove race and gender from people's considerations. They think not about that, but just about issues, the race is essentially tied. However, once we use that same experiment to introduce race or introduce gender into people's considerations, what they're thinking about, we find that the race goes very strongly in Harris's direction. So we introduce gender as an issue. What we find is that suddenly is up rather than being tied. Harris is up by 11 points. We introduce a racism issue suddenly she's up by 14 points. Uh That 14 point gap being caused almost entirely by Black and Hispanic voters suddenly coming over to her side. We've seen former President Trump doing relatively well among Black and Hispanic voters. Uh But once people are thinking about race that support just craters Joshua 20 points a month, all nonwhite groups. So these are really powerful elements, however, they're powerful on to the extent that they're relatively subtle. We think if Harris was to actually try and really talk about this, talk about identity, talk about sex, for instance, the way that uh for the way that Senator Hillary Clinton talked about sex when she ran for president in 2008, that it probably would not work nearly as well. All right, listen, you, you focus quite a bit on gender dynamics and masculinity in this poll. What did you find here? Well, what we found not surprisingly is that there's a huge gap between men who say that they have traditional versions of masculinity, which is mostly older, especially older whiter men and other men. So when we take a look at people, men who say they are traditionally masculine, they're favoring Trump by about 30 points. And we often talk about the gender gap. That's the idea of the difference between men and women and how they're going to vote. We find it's not really a gap between men and women. It's actually gap between this one group of men. About half of men who say they have very traditional gender roles, they believe in traditional masculinity. Well, those men favor Trump by 30 points, all the other groups, other men, women who are traditional and less traditional all favor him by about 20. So this is really where the real gender gap is. It's not about sex, not about men versus women. It's about this one group of very traditionally masculine men versus everybody else. Very interesting, Dan, uh Dan Cassino from uh the FDU poll, Dan, as always, we appreciate your time and uh of course, we, we look forward to the next poll. Not sure how long it's gonna be before that one comes out. Uh It'll be a poll just in usually politics, so it will be something I'm sure you like. All right, Dan. Thanks a lot. Appreciate your time as always and keep it right here on New Jersey, Power and politics. When we come back more of this week's remembrances of Congressman Bill.

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NJPP831C_2024-08-31-15-16-20

Welcome back to New Jersey, Power and Politics. I'm Eric Lron, former New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie will be teaching a course on running for office at Yale University. This semester, the weekly seminar taught by Christie is entitled How To Run a political campaign. And it's open to undergraduates as well as graduate students at Yale's Jackson School of Global Affairs. The course description says that it will examine issues such as communications, fund raising and the all important question. What kind of leader do I wanna be? Christie was a two term governor of course, but was unsuccessful in both bids to secure the Republican nomination for president. All right, since the passing of Congressman Bill Pascrell a week and a half ago, we've heard and shared with you so many poignant stories and memories from those who worked with him, who respected him and who loved him. We thought it only fitting to end the show this week by highlighting the bond between father and son, his namesake, Bill Pascrell the third. Whenever my dad spoke, he would be direct and give it to people straight. I think it's only fitting that I follow that example. And give it to you straight. Today is a sad day because of the loss of William James Pascrell Junior or simply Bill. He was many things to all of us. But to me and my brothers, Glenn and David, he was our living and dedicated father and to our dear mother, Elsie, he was loving and a devoted husband. I wish we weren't here right now. I wish my dad was still with us. He was my best friend for most of my life. I've started every day talking to my dad. I miss him very much. He grew to become fiercely dedicated to doing everything he could for his family, his friends and anyone who needed help. It was Bill Pascrell S commitment to serving others rather than mere political ambition that led to a steady ascent to many high positions including United States Congress, mayor of the city of Paterson as a young man, he didn't set out to win elections so much to win friends. As my mother has said so many times, I didn't marry a congressman. I married a teacher that is Bill Pascrell the third who's been here in power and politics many times over the years. We wish Bill and all the entire Pascrell family, our condolences and our deepest sympathies. And that'll do it for this week. I'm Eric Lz Krenner. We thank you for watching New Jersey Power and Politics. We'll see you again next time.

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Flags flew at half staff as New Jersey said its final farewells to Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr. The Paterson native was laid to rest earlier this week.

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