Clouds are already collecting over New Jersey as a fast-moving winter system over the Plains heads in our direction. Tonight, many communities in the northern Plains are under a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory in anticipation of accumulating snows that will be plowable in the worst areas.

That “clipper” system will continue to travel in our direction, unravel and weaken as it does so. The key to getting a decent snowfall in New Jersey out of this storm is going to depend on when and where a coastal storm forms off the East Coast. Unfortunately for New Jersey snow lovers, all the ingredients do not come together for serious accumulations. The offshore storm develops too far south and does not curve up the coast with help from upper-level winds. Instead, it forms and continues to travel away from the coast towards Nova Scotia.

All is not lost though. The energy still has to pass through the area and portions of northern New Jersey can expect some festive flakes starting Friday afternoon and continuing through very early Saturday morning.

The hills of northwestern New Jersey can expect a little more than just a coating, but not enough for proper plowable snow. A few neighborhoods will have to move heavy wet snow from front steps and sidewalks. Otherwise, accumulations should be held in check because the precipitation will waffle from snow to rain back to snow and so on through the duration of the storm.

As the system intensifies away from New Jersey the moisture will be pulled away with it. However, really cold air will follow. Expect the first official weekend of winter to feel like it. Plenty of sun for both Saturday and Sunday. Morning lows will be in the teens and low-20s. Daily highs will just be in the 20s and 30s.