Oil prices surged Monday as tensions in the Middle East escalated.

About 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.

The escalating violence is affecting this key shipping route, and many drivers are now watching gas prices at the pump.

In New Jersey today, the average price for a gallon of regular gas is $2.92, according to AAA. The national average is $3.11.

It’s above $3 a gallon for the first time this year, which recent surveys identify as a “pain point” for many Americans.​

Prices usually rise this time of year because of seasonal factors, but there are also geopolitical pressures at play.

“Now we are really insulated from that because the United States is the number one oil producer on earth, upward of 12 million barrels per day, thanks in large part to hydraulic fracturing, but there are global market forces at work,” AAA spokesperson Robert Sinclair. “So if something happens in the Middle East to make the price of crude oil go up around the whole world, then we have to pay the same price even though we’ve got plenty of it.”​

Experts say as long as the violence continues, gas prices are likely to remain elevated, but it is still too early to predict how much higher they could go.