How accurate is the Farmers’ Almanac in predicting the weather?Posted: Updated:
Summer is winding down, leading some New Jersey residents to begin to worry about the colder weather coming in the not-too-distant future.
It seems that almost every year the Farmers’ Almanac forecasts that the United States will see a cold and snowy winter. But just how accurate are these predictions?
The Farmers’ Almanac for this year predicts that the entire country will see below-average temperatures with frequent rain and snow. But scientists at the Climate Prediction Center say that this is not entirely accurate.
The center says that most of the U.S. had above-average temperatures, along with normal amounts of rain and snow. The CPS uses long-range models to make the forecast, something the Farmers’ Almanac does not use, according to the center.
“They make these allusions to solar cycles and lunar cycles, but none of those things show any kind of influence or connection with what the winter is going to be,” says meteorologist Sean Sublette.
Weather experts say that the Farmers’ Almanac can be a fun and interesting read. But they say that meteorologists are the ones to go to for the forecast.
“If the Farmers’ Almanac was as accurate as it likes to portray itself, they probably wouldn't need to sell almanacs. There's investment banking, there are electrical utilities that are very interested in what the weather is going to be like during the winter,” Sublette says.
New Jersey has seen a trend toward warmer temperatures and more rain and snow over the past few winters.
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